Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1538 · DEN → TYS
departs 11:04 AM MT · arrives 3:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sun 10/18 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at TYS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TYS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.733333 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
11am departures from DEN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.733333 mi Precip 0.19 in
TYS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.