Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1576
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1576 · PHX → ELP
departs 8:23 AM MT · arrives 10:43 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ELP (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.