Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1648
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1648 · LAS → OAK
departs 10:08 AM PT · arrives 11:55 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
10am departures from LAS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.