Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1747
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1747 · PHX → DAL
departs 11:33 AM MT · arrives 3:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 22%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at DAL that day
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.