Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1791
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
WN 1791 · DEN → SMF
departs 8:25 PM MT · arrives 9:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 37%
Fri 10/16 33%
Sat 10/17 26%
Sun 10/18 26%
Mon 10/19 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
64%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.733333 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.733333 mi Precip 0.19 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.