Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1798
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1798 · BWI → IND
departs 9:11 PM ET · arrives 10:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IND that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.