Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1826 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

WN 1826 · MCO → TYS

departs 2:51 PM ET · arrives 4:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Arrivals into TYS at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TYS (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1826 · MCO → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?