Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1833
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1833 · DSM → LAS
departs 12:11 PM CT · arrives 1:13 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DSM that day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
DSM (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.25 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.