Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1838
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1838 · DEN → RNO
departs 8:46 AM MT · arrives 10:02 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 29%
Wed 10/14
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.733333 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.733333 mi Precip 0.19 in
RNO (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.