Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1845
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1845 · DTW → MDW
departs 9:02 AM ET · arrives 9:18 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 12%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at MDW that day
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.