Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1876
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1876 · ELP → HOU
departs 10:30 AM MT · arrives 1:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 15%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.