Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2116
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 2116 · SJU → BWI
departs 5:51 AM AT · arrives 9:59 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 4%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
4%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
4%
Leave 15+ late
3%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.