Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2174
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 2174 · MCI → PHX
departs 2:10 PM CT · arrives 2:55 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 19%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.4 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.4 mi Precip 1.00 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.