Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2184
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 2184 · IND → PHX
departs 1:21 PM ET · arrives 2:03 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 19%
Wed 10/14
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IND that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.46 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.