Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2211
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 2211 · SMF → PHX
departs 8:46 AM PT · arrives 10:44 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.