Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2235 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

WN 2235 · AUS → BWI

departs 9:11 AM CT · arrives 1:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

BWI (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2235 · AUS → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?