Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2259
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 2259 · SFO → DEN
departs 11:01 AM PT · arrives 2:31 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 33%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
36%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
11am departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.