Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2469
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 2469 · MCI → BWI
departs 1:41 PM CT · arrives 5:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 12%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCI that day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.27 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.