Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2529
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 2529 · LGA → DAL
departs 4:57 PM ET · arrives 7:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 10/13 25%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 43%
Fri 10/16 48%
Sat 10/17 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.