Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2540
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 2540 · MCO → DEN
departs 6:31 AM ET · arrives 8:26 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.4 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.4 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.