Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2631
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 2631 · MCI → LAS
departs 9:16 AM CT · arrives 10:12 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 20%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±8 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.64 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.