Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2649
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 2649 · DEN → LGA
departs 11:36 AM MT · arrives 5:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 37%
Wed 10/14
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
11am departures from DEN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.43 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.