Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2859
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 2859 · SFO → BUR
departs 10:04 AM PT · arrives 11:22 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.