Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3028
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 3028 · MHT → MCO
departs 12:53 PM ET · arrives 4:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 23%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave MHT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at MHT that day
↑
12pm departures from MHT are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MHT (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.03 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.