Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 3417 · PHX → MCI
departs 6:20 AM MT · arrives 10:55 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 3%
Fri 10/16 3%
Sat 10/17 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCI that day
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from PHX are usually not late
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 1.49 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.