Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 3515 · ICT → DEN
departs 7:30 AM CT · arrives 7:59 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Tue 10/13 22%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 7%
Sat 10/17 4%
Sun 10/18 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±6 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at ICT that day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from ICT are usually not late
Weather at each end
ICT (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 1.64 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.