Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3855
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 3855 · TPA → FLL
departs 3:51 PM ET · arrives 4:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Sun 10/18 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FLL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.