Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3993
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 3993 · MDW → DTW
departs 1:06 PM CT · arrives 3:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
1pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.39 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.