Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 406 · OKC → LAS
departs 11:21 AM CT · arrives 12:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at OKC that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
OKC (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.96 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.