Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4126
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
WN 4126 · STL → SMF
departs 8:36 AM CT · arrives 10:42 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Wed 10/14
Sat 10/17 7%
Sun 10/18 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
Other factors
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.79 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.