Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4315
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4315 · HOU → FLL
departs 6:41 PM CT · arrives 10:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
FLL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.