Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 437
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 437 · STL → PHX
departs 12:11 PM CT · arrives 1:26 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.59 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.