Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4386
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4386 · DEN → COS
departs 9:01 AM MT · arrives 9:46 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at COS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to COS?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Other factors
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at COS that day
↓
Arrivals into COS at that hour are usually not late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.43 in
COS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.37 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.