Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4438 · TUL → LAS
departs 7:25 AM CT · arrives 8:23 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Mon 10/12 7%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 5%
Fri 10/16 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±7 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUL that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from TUL are usually not late
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.45 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.