Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4463
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4463 · LAS → LIH
departs 9:17 AM PT · arrives 12:46 PM HT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at LIH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LIH?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LIH is prone to delays
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LIH (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.