Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4529
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4529 · IND → LAS
departs 10:36 AM ET · arrives 11:27 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 9%
Sun 10/18 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±7 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IND that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.46 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.