Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4533
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4533 · AUS → FLL
departs 3:46 PM CT · arrives 7:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 20%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
FLL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
FLL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.