Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4535
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4535 · MDW → BOS
departs 7:51 AM CT · arrives 11:11 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 9%
Sun 10/18 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.33 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.