Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4538 · DEN → SEA
departs 12:21 PM MT · arrives 2:03 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 30%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SEA that day
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.24 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.