Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4573
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4573 · MDW → PHL
departs 7:46 AM CT · arrives 10:53 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 5%
Wed 10/14
Sat 10/17 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
MDW is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.39 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.