Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4580
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4580 · PHL → MDW
departs 7:46 AM ET · arrives 8:53 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Sat 10/17 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.