Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4582
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4582 · AUS → MCO
departs 2:26 PM CT · arrives 5:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 15%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.