Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4626
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4626 · AUS → DEN
departs 9:15 AM CT · arrives 10:31 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Tue 10/13 17%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 14%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 4%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.733333 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.03 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.733333 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.