Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4746
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4746 · PHX → MKE
departs 7:56 AM MT · arrives 1:19 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MKE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MKE?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MKE (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.