Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4833
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4833 · DEN → AUS
departs 6:38 AM MT · arrives 9:45 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 2%
Tue 10/13 3%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 4%
Fri 10/16 3%
Sun 10/18 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Other factors
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from DEN are usually not late
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.43 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.