Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4883
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4883 · BWI → BNA
departs 3:36 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 5%
Fri 10/16 5%
Sat 10/17 4%
Sun 10/18 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.