Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 518
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
WN 518 · CVG → DEN
departs 3:33 PM ET · arrives 4:39 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±6 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.733333 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at CVG that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.42 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.733333 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.