Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 745
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 745 · TUL → PHX
departs 7:11 AM CT · arrives 7:48 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUL that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from TUL are usually not late
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.53 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.