Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 845
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 845 · BUF → BWI
departs 4:26 PM ET · arrives 5:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from BUF are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.