Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8501
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 8501 · DEN → DSM
departs 4:14 AM MT · arrives 6:59 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at DSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DSM?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into DSM at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.24 in
DSM (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.